Reading the curve, not the headline
Curve anomalies are information. When short rates, term premia, and credit spreads move out of historical relationship, portfolios need an explicit response—not a wait-and-see posture.
Refinancing windows
Borrowers with walls inside 18 months should model both a sticky-high and a fast-cut path. Optionality in prepayment and hedges is often more valuable than a marginal coupon improvement.
Performance is preserved by decisions taken before the market consensus forms.
Duration with discipline
Extending duration can be rational—but only when liquidity buffers and liability timing still hold under a second-order shock.
